U.S. Military Mobility Goals at Guantanamo/Cuba Scenario for Bargaining with Washington to Suspend U

Hadi-Aalami-Fariman, an expert on Latin American issues, explaining the dimensions of the presence of the US nuclear submarine at Guantanamo Bay, told the ILNA reporter: "Recently, the Cuban diplomatic apparatus has reacted to the arrival of a US nuclear submarine at Guantanamo Bay, calling it a provocation and escalation." Some believe that if this is true, it should be interpreted in retaliation for recent U.S. reports about China's presence in Cuba and Beijing's establishment of a spy base in the country, but it is important to mention a very important point. The reality is that in the current U.S. administration, there is a complicated situation in the case of Cuba, so that a series of lobbyists opposed to the U.S. embargo have been able to approach U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and pressure him to ease or lift the sanctions imposed on Havana.

He continued: "In return, Cuban authorities are seeking to lift sanctions on their country by the United States. The Cuban government is experiencing poor economic conditions and social vulnerabilities, and I believe that Havana wants to turn China and Russia against the United States in Cuba in order to ultimately pressure Washington. Accordingly, it should be noted that the United States has direct access to Guantánamo and that this location cannot be definitively monitored. Accordingly, I believe that Cuba's action can be likened to a political bargaining to lead the situation in the desired direction. What needs to be noted is that the Cuban government is not in a position to unilaterally threaten the United States or even send an indirect threat signal to Washington.

The analyst said that the power of the Havana government is no longer the same in economic terms and does not even want to enter into tension with the United States. For this reason, Havana's goal is to adjust sanctions to open up the economic space. I also have to point out that basically the Biden administration has been dealing with Cuba more gently than the Trump administration, and in some ways we should consider it to be a follower of Barack Obama's administration, but all the components in Havana and Washington indicate that Cubans are seeking a compromise with the Biden administration. Accordingly, if the Cuban lobbyists in the United States agree with the US power structure, I don't think China and Russia will go to serious stone-throwing.

Finally, referring to US red lines in Cuba and Latin America, he noted that not only Cuba, but also Moscow and Beijing know very well that the United States does not tolerate any movement abroad near its traditional sphere of influence, and Washington is very sensitive to its red lines in this region. Cuba understands these issues very well, and I believe that it is trying to prevent China and Russia from moving too much on its soil so that it does not suddenly take reckless action against Washington's vital interests and ultimately reaps its own interests in relation to the United States.

COMPONENTS AFFECTING THE VENEZUELAN CRISIS

Strategic Council Online: Street demonstrations in Venezuela are still continuing, while the crisis is becoming more internationalized day by day.
Hadi Aalami Fariman – Venezuelan Affairs Specialist

The crisis in Venezuela is known as the Presidential Crisis, a crisis that began on January 10, 2019. On this date, the Venezuelan National Assembly declared invalid the result of the 2018 presidential election, which led to the victory of Nicolás Maduro. On this day, the Venezuelan National Assembly introduced Juan Guaido as the interim president. After that, despite some attempts to end the crisis, we are witnessing the continuation and even escalation of the tensions.

At present, inside Venezuela, the issue of stripping opposition leader Juan Guaido of parliamentary immunity is hot news and has caused further irritation in the country. Because the American red line was that Guaido would not be hurt anyway. For this reason, the Maduro government has tried to strip Guaido of immunity in order to prosecute him later on.

Another important issue in the Venezuelan crisis is the unfaithfulness of some commanders of the armed forces who have sought asylum in Colombia. Regarding the region, pressures, especially from Brazil, are factors influencing the Venezuelan crisis.

The next event also relates to growing sanctions by the US. Washington has even banned tankers that load Venezuela’s oil. Therefore, America seems to be moving in the direction of tightening the sanctions against Caracas. On the other hand, following the presence of Russian troops in Venezuela, Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, announced that Washington is ready to respond to the Russian move. Meanwhile, China also has sent troops to Venezuela, which was a very surprising move.

By placing these developments beside one another, it can be said that the nature of the current strategic rivalries has come out of the ideological phase of the Cold War and rivalries that covered mostly capitalist and socialist aspects. Now, the basis is more strategic economic competitions.

If we look at the macro strategies of the United States in recent years, they are more focused on financial wars and pursue several goals; first, it is a matter of protecting the US dollar system that the Americans are deeply sensitive about.

Another issue is the war of tariffs; global powers seem to be trying to avoid the military confrontation in this area, especially in the Venezuelan domain.

The oil component is also effective in the trend of the developments in Venezuela. The United States has been drawing long-term plans to sell its oil, and it is natural that countries like Iran, Venezuela and even OPEC states would not enter this cycle.

The issue of huge investments made by the Chinese and the Russians in Venezuela is also one of the other influential factors in recent developments simply because they do not want to lose this space easily.

So the three components, namely the question of the US dollar boost; the oil debate, and the arrival of military advisers from China and Russia in Venezuela, are among the factors that affect the crisis.

It seems, however, that the involvement of Chinese and Russian military forces is just a bluff, with the aim of influencing US decisions. In fact, Moscow and Beijing are keen to believe that their military forces will affect the Americans as much as possible, if they are to take a lead at the negotiating table.

As a result, perhaps the top priority of Russia and China is based on the commitment of the Americans to maintain their investments in Venezuela under all circumstances. In the meantime, the most likely scenario seems to be that Russia and China will try to manage this and resolve the problems with the United States.

Indeed, if Russia and China come to the conclusion that their investments are being maintained and will receive a share of Venezuelan cake, they would engage with the United States.

Of course, inside Venezuela, we are witnessing a chaotic situation, and it is thought that compromise is impossible there, especially because Venezuela has been turned into a field of the rivalry of the world powers.

FACTORS EFFECTIVE IN FUELING RECENT PROTESTS IN IRAQ

Strategic Council Online: US discontent with Adel Abdul Mahdi’s foreign policy shift toward China and Russia and the issue of the Resistance are among the factors fueling the recent protests in Iraq.
Hadi Alami Fariman – Foreign Policy Expert

Demonstrations in Baghdad and some other Iraqi provinces began on Tuesday, October 1in protest to corruption and unemployment, but quickly derailed from its main cause and entered political and sectarian phase, leading to clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Following these developments, the Iraqi government, at the request of the Iraqi people and the Supreme Religious Authority, who called for urgent consideration of the rightful demands of the peaceful demonstrators, announced an immediate package of reforms in the framework of the expectations of the Supreme Religious Authority and the demands of the people. This helped the protesters calm down to some extent but it will depend on the mechanism of implementing these reforms and their continuity.

The demonstrations have eased in recent days due to the pledge of reforms by the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi and some arrests, but the important point is that failure to carry out structural reforms will keep the demands like fire under the ashes which could inflame at any moment.

It should also be noted that Iraq has a mosaic identity and structure, and it seems that the ultimate solution to its current state of passage from today’s crisis can be adapted from consociational democracy, a kind of democracy that is specific to heterogeneous or multicultural societies. In fact, the only way Iraqis can get out of the crisis is to increase political participation. On the other hand, given the characteristics of good governance, women, youth, and all walks of life, when looking at and examining a government, pay particular attention to its effectiveness.

Therefore, the Iraqi government must consider a few things in order to satisfy its people; first, it is the question of transparency that should be applied to the highest level in the oil states. The other is accountability. The issue of combating corruption and the use of clean elements with a good track record in the fight against corruption also issues the Iraqi government must pay close attention to.

In addition, it should be noted that in such conditions of protest, opportunistic and vengeful groups with political and security grudges quickly activate passive faults, spanning a variety of spectrums. These include the surviving Baathists from the time of Saddam Hossein, elements of ISIS or their loyalists, and regional and global powers such as the United States or the Israeli regime, which have sparked and intensified these protests to accomplish their specific goals. Therefore, external interference has always existed in the state of protests against domestic issues in any country.

On the other hand, some believe that world powers, as well as some regional powers, are in competition to overthrow the Iraqi government, which has faced a foreign conspiracy. Meanwhile, mention can be made of US discontent with Adel Abdul Mahdi’s foreign policy toward China and Russia, or the question of Resistance. This can be explained within the strategic competition between foreign powers.
Iraq has always been the scene of cold war rivalries between the former Soviet Union and the United States during Saddam and before him, and these rivalries have turned violent because of rich oil resources.

Now inside Iraq, probably because of involvement of Russia and China as effective actors in Iraq, these reactions will be natural because China is now a focal point in US national security doctrine, and Americans are watching China everywhere. However, to have a sound understanding of Iraq, a set of diverse domestic, foreign, and regional factors should be taken into consideration.